ArtTactic’s September 2026 Contemporary Art Market Confidence Survey offers the clearest indication yet that sentiment has begun to recover. Its overall confidence indicator increased from 43 in March to 56 in September, moving into positive territory for only the second time since February 2022.
The improvement has been led by the auction sector. Combined sales at Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips increased by 70% year on year during the first half of 2026, helping auction-market confidence reach its highest level in four years. Sentiment towards the primary market has also strengthened, although its recovery remains more measured.
Confidence is particularly pronounced at the top of the market. The indicator for works valued above $1 million reached 86, its highest reading since February 2022. The market below $100,000 is also showing resilience, suggesting renewed activity among both established collectors and those entering the market at more accessible levels.
The picture is less assured between $100,000 and $500,000, which remains the least confident price segment. This reflects a market in which buyers are prepared to compete for exceptional works but remain cautious when quality, rarity or pricing is less convincing. It is no longer sufficient for a work simply to carry a recognised name. Its date, medium, condition, provenance and importance within the artist’s practice are increasingly decisive.
This selectivity is also visible in the report’s artist rankings. Yayoi Kusama, Marlene Dumas and Cecily Brown lead short-term confidence, while Gerhard Richter remains the artist whom experts consider most likely to retain long-term market importance. Richter is followed by Kusama and Brown, whose high positions across both measures demonstrate the value the market places on sustained institutional recognition and an established international collector base.
Improving confidence should not, however, be confused with a return to the speculative conditions of 2021 and early 2022. ArtTactic’s speculation measure declined slightly in September, suggesting that the present recovery is being driven primarily by established artists with proven markets rather than by rapid trading or indiscriminate demand.
At the same time, perceived market risk has increased. Economic sentiment has improved substantially since March but remains negative overall, while geopolitical instability and uncertainty about the global economy continue to influence expectations. Although current auction confidence is exceptionally strong, experts are more cautious about conditions over the coming six months.
The 12-month outlook therefore points towards consolidation rather than dramatic expansion: 60% of those surveyed expect the market to remain broadly flat, 35% anticipate further growth and only 5% foresee a decline. A flat market does not necessarily mean an inactive one. It can provide a more measured environment in which realistic pricing returns, buyers have time to undertake proper due diligence and strong works continue to find demand.
As with any confidence survey, however, the findings need to be considered alongside what the published report does—and does not—tell us. The version reviewed does not state how many experts participated, how respondents were selected or whether the same panel contributed to previous surveys. Nor does it show how participants were distributed between auction houses, galleries, advisers, collectors and other market professionals. These distinctions matter because different parts of the trade can experience the same market very differently.
The survey is described as covering the United States and Europe, but it does not disclose the geographical spread of its respondents within those regions. A panel weighted towards London and New York might produce a different assessment from one incorporating more extensive representation from Continental Europe or regional American markets. The report also provides limited insight into Asia and the Middle East, both of which remain important to the international contemporary market.
The reported 70% increase in auction sales should also be interpreted carefully. Aggregate sales value can be substantially influenced by a small number of exceptional consignments, trophy works or single-owner collections. It does not necessarily represent a comparable increase in the value of the wider market—or in the value of every artist and work offered within it.
Most importantly, the indicators measure sentiment rather than like-for-like price performance. Confidence can influence consignments, bidding and purchasing decisions, but it is not itself evidence that the value of an individual artwork has risen. Market conditions must still be examined at artist, medium, period and work level.
For collectors, this creates both opportunities and responsibilities. Those considering acquisitions may encounter greater choice and more realistic negotiations outside the most competitive areas of the market. Sellers of exceptional works may benefit from renewed demand, but success will continue to depend upon careful timing, positioning and pricing. General market confidence should never be applied indiscriminately to an individual artist or artwork.
The report ultimately describes a market that is recovering without losing its discipline. Confidence has returned, but selectivity remains. In this environment, informed advice, independent research and a clear understanding of quality are more important than following headline results alone.
Julia Bell Art Advisory provides independent advice to private collectors, family offices and institutions on acquisitions, collection development, valuations and the international art market.